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There’s 50/1 Value Amongst the BBC Sports Personality Betting Markets

Roy Brindley

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BBC Sports Personality Betting Preview 2017

The runners and riders are in for the ‘BBC Sports Personality of the Year’ and it looks a penalty-kick for the unified Word Heavyweight Boxing Champion Anthony Joshua.

In fact, let’s say it is for BBC Sports Personality betting purposes (aka ‘SPOTY’) and let’s also treat this event as a ‘without the fav’ proposition or simply ‘place only’.  

Let’s also forget the omission of Jermain Defoe, or Rugby Union’s Maro Itoje and Owen Farrell.  Even, from a personal viewpoint, Skiing’s World Cup runner-up Dave Ryding.  …His SPOTY outing must wait for another year.

BBC Sports Personality Betting – The contenders…

6/1 Lewis Hamilton (8/11 ‘without the favourite’)

Runner-up in 2007 and 2008, the Formula 1 driver finally won this award in 2014 when taking his third World Driver’s Championship.  

Recent front-page headlines about tax avoidance schemes and details of his phenomenal wealth/earnings cannot have won favour with the voting public and he is surely no odds-on shot for a win or second to Anthony Joshua.

16/1 Chris Froome (4/1 ‘without’)

The logical choice in the ‘without market’ Chris Froome has not only won four Tour de France titles he may have won a fifth if it was not for multiple crashes in the 2014 edition and could have won the race in 2012 when gifting it to Bradley Wiggins (ultimately taking second spot).  

Cyclist Chris Hoy won this in 2008, as did Mark Cavendish in 2011 and Bradley Wiggins in 2012.  However Froome’s accent and citizenship (lives in Monaco, born in Kenya, raised by his British parents in South Africa) seems to have prevented him from faring better than he really should have in this ‘award show’ before now.

OK, it did not stop previous SPOTY winners Greg Rusedski and Lennox Lewis (who both used the British flag of convenience) but Froome was not even on last year’s shortlist and has never ‘podiumed’ here.

25/1 Mo Farah (8/1 ‘without’)

To think of the national hysteria when we had Sebastian Coe and Steve Cram collecting Olympic medals in 1980 when no less than 65 countries, headed by the USA, boycotted the Olympic Games.

Yet the British public have never warmed to Sir Mohamed Farah despite him being one of the finest track athletes the world has ever seen.  Maybe it is because he is Somalian-born but lives in Portland, Oregon, USA and trains in Kenya.

Maybe it’s because his coach, Alberto Salazar, is loathed.  Possibly it’s just because he is the man behind those ‘Quorn’ TV commercials, that vile vegetarian stuff that tastes like belly-button fluff.

Whatever it is – I personally blame Clare Balding who regularly boasts she was the one that encouraged him to bounce around with his fingertips planed in the centre of his head looking like a hyperactive wingnut post-race – his record speaks a thousand words and despite him being the finest British runner in history he should have received a lot more from the SPOTY voters than his single bronze medal in 2011.

40/1 Harry Kane (12/1 ‘without’)

The Premier League’s top goal scorer and England’s leading goal scorer in their 2018 World Cup qualifying campaign has to be taken very seriously.  

A football winner pops up every seven years or so – Paul Gascoigne, Michael Owen, David Beckham and Ryan Giggs – which does not underline individual achievements as much as the beautiful game’s popularity. 

Indeed Ryan Giggs victory (pre his bedding his brother’s wife story coming to light – actually that could have got him more votes) was simply a result of Manchester United fan clubs orchestrating a huge vote for the loyal (loyal to the team) player.  

Given Tottenham Hotspur could do the same, the 24-year-old will surely belie his SPOTY betting odds when the final votes are counted.

40/1 Jonathan Rea (12/1 ‘without’)

There’s no doubting Motorcycling’s rise in popularity but do you know the difference between World Superbikes and MotoGP?  Exactly.

Rea broke Carl Fogarty’s record of 16 race victories this year but off the track the most Fogarty achieved was victory in “I’m a Celebrity”.  

It’s conceivable Rea could match that but surely not podium in SPOTY especially given his Northern Irish accent which helped Rory McIlroy to defeat in 2014.

100/1 Adam Peaty (33/1 ‘without’)

Unquestionably a brilliant talent and aged just 22 has a long career and possibly more Olympic medals ahead of him.

But it is 55 years since a swimmer last won SPOTY and in this modern era of slow motion footage and drone imagery, swimming rates as exciting as crown green bowling.  Limited fan-base means he’s a genuine no hoper.  

150/1 Jonnie Peacock (40/1 ‘without’)

Secured gold at the IPC World Athletics Championships in the T44 100m but chances best judged on his appearance in ‘Strictly Come Dancing 2017’.   Eliminated in eighth there, could go one better here.

150/1 Anya Shrubsole (66/1 ‘without’)

Personally I’d prefer to have my ears slowly removed with a cheese grater before being forced to watch just ten minutes of live cricket.  Over 26,500 people don’t agree with me as that is how many people rocked up at Lords this summer to see Shrubsole (has this woman never heard of deed poll?) claim six for 46 in the World Cup final and help England win by nine runs.

I’ve no idea what that latter part means but I do know 109,000, 79,000, 99,000 and 57,000 votes has all that’s been needed to claim third place in the SPOTY these past four years.

If the Lords crowd takes to the phone and buy just three votes apiece, the girl with the unfortunate name could easily take a bronze medal.  

In fact, as the cost of 50,000 votes is just £7,500, I fancy organising a bit of vote rigging if I can get £400 on at the advertised 50/1 about a ‘podium finish’ (Ladbrokes and Coral).

200/1 Bianca Walkden (100/1 ‘without’)

Taekwondo?  Bob Hope?  No Hope?

200/1 Jo Konta (100/1 ‘without’)

Reached her best singles world ranking of No.4 after winning the Miami Open and then reached the last four at Wimbledon.  Konta is as British as Rolf Harris, born in Sydney and represented Australia until 2012.  

The tennis set have proven themselves fanatical and ‘with sense of humour’ given their love for the likes of ‘personalities’ Greg Rusedski and Tim Henman (first and second in 1997) and that Scottish fella who must be raging he is not nominated in 2017.  So she could finish as high as fifth in my book.

I think that only leaves us speed skater Elise Christie (200/1 and 100/1 ‘without’) who became the first European woman to win the 1,000m, 1,500m and overall gold at the World Championships.  That is an amazing achievement given the Dutch dominance of this sport.

But she lacks in personality (meaning she is unlikely to win votes via pre-voting interviews) and has the traits of underachiever Katarina Johnson-Thompson.  If the pair were racehorses we would be presuming they are sired by Montjeu.

Hit the headlines by being disqualified from three events (for three different reasons) at the last Winter Olympics (impressive stuff) but, if continuing in her current vein of form she could easily return from Beijing in February as a national hero and early favourite for 2018 Sports Personality of the Year.  

In summary – Our SPOTY betting tips:

We have two bets, Harry Kane at 12/1 to ‘do best of the rest’ in the ‘betting without’ market.  That’s based on Chris Froome’s and Mo Farrah’s miserable record here, Hamilton’s tax wrap, plus football’s popularity.

But I’m piling into the 50/1 about Anya Shrubsole making the podium.  Call me old fashioned but I see cricket fans as elitist (as I do the tennis set), they can afford to vote and clearly do.  Showjumper Nick Skelton finished third last year …go figure.

Furthermore I’m lining up two dozen friends to place as many votes as we can during the 35 minute voting window.  Hopefully, as was the case last year, we can place something like six votes for the cost of five in a single phone call.

Finally I’m urging you and the kind people I have on a 20,000 strong data-base to place their free online vote for Anya Shrubsole. It costs nothing and if they do, collectively we will be well on our way to buying her a bronze medal.  

Ultimately, given a draw in a pimp-slot – that is her achievements being highlighted between eighth and eleventh in the TV show’s running order – Anya Shrubsole is never a 50/1 poke and should be backed and then supported at 20/1+.

BBC Sports Personality of the Year results with vote percentages: